Use of Current Population Survey and Cooperative Election Study in Analyzing Registered Voter Turnout

The Current Population Survey (CPS) is sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Within the CPS infrastructure, the Census Bureau has collected voting and registration data biennially in the November Current Population Survey since 1964. It is the national statistical source of record for state-and national voter registration and turnout statistics. These statistics were used recently by an expert for the Plaintiff's in the case of White v. Mississippi State Board of Election Commissioners. The Plaintiff's expert made a fundamental mathematical mistake in their calculations – and concluded that Black voters in Mississippi underperformed white voters in both registration rates and turnout. In reality, according to the offically published CPS statistics – Blacks in Mississippi have outperformed whites in registration and turnout and have done so for some time.

Facing this reality, the Plaintiff's expert sought a new dataset that could potentially support their case. They found it in what is known as the Cooperative Election survey, or "CES". The CES is a well-established and highly regarded survey conducted by a consortium of universities. It differs from the CPS insofar as it engages a separate, external service to verify its respondent reported answers as to whether they registered to vote and actually voted. The Plaintiff's expert analyzed the CES microdata and concluded again that whites did in fact outperform Blacks in voter registration and turnout. In fact, the expert again erred in their analysis, selecting the incorrect demographic weights. Had they used the correct weights, they would have found no statistically significant difference between Black and white voters.

This presentation will include an assessment of the similarities and differences between the CES and CPS in Mississippi.

Current Population Survey

Cooperative Election Study

Voting Statistics

Voter Registration

Voter Turnout 

Practice and Applications

Symposium on Data Science and Statistics (SDSS) 2024