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Did a Transformative Public Transport Investment Improve Air Quality? Elizabeth Line in London

Abstract Number:

2310 

Submission Type:

Contributed Abstract 

Contributed Abstract Type:

Paper 

Participants:

Liang Ma (1), Kai Reis Darius Cooper (2), Marc E.J. Stettler (1), Daniel Graham (1)

Institutions:

(1) Imperial College London, United Kingdom, (2) The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, United States

Co-Author(s):

Kai Reis Darius Cooper  
The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
Marc E.J. Stettler  
Imperial College London
Daniel Graham  
Imperial College London

First Author:

Liang Ma  
Imperial College London

Presenting Author:

Liang Ma  
Imperial College London

Abstract Text:

Public transport is commonly connected to advantages such as mitigating traffic congestion and improving air quality. The Elizabeth Line, introduced in 2022, represents the most significant single increase in London's transport capacity in over 70 years. Connecting surrounding cities, a major airport, and central employment centres, this line is anticipated to increase the rail capacity in central London by 10%. Using meteorological normalisation for confounding control, repeated change point detection for response identification via hypothesis testing, and a regression discontinuity design for causal inference, our study finds heterogeneous responses in air pollution across different places in London. Changes in NO2 concentrations ranged from -9% to 0% in the short run and -15% to 0% in the long run. The comparison across different regions reveals more significant pollution reductions in inner and outer London at the town-wide level, whereas central London experienced greater decreases near roads. Our findings highlight the potential of public transport improvements in mitigating air pollution while emphasising the importance of accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of effects.

Keywords:

Air Pollution|Causal Analysis|Public Transport|Meteorological Normalisation |Change Point Detection|

Sponsors:

Section on Statistics and the Environment

Tracks:

Environmental Policy and Regulations

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