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Evaluation of a Modified Gross Flows Estimator for The Current Population Survey

Abstract Number:

2365 

Submission Type:

Contributed Abstract 

Contributed Abstract Type:

Paper 

Participants:

Stephen Miller (1), Connor Doherty (1)

Institutions:

(1) Bureau of Labor Statistics, N/A

Co-Author:

Connor Doherty  
Bureau of Labor Statistics

First Author:

Stephen Miller  
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Presenting Author:

Connor Doherty  
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Abstract Text:

We present a gross flows estimation approach which builds off the paper of Stasny and Fienberg (1984). Our method uses population weighted estimates from two consecutive months of matched data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) using the sampling weights from each of the two matched months to produce two sets of partial gross flows tables. We then use a modeling approach from Stasny and Fienberg to reconcile the two partial tables to produce an estimate of the population gross flows table. Closed form solutions are presented which require an optimization solution to determine Lagrange parameters. First and second derivatives are presented to aid the optimization. We use the method to produce estimated gross flows tables for CPS from 2000-2023 and estimate the variance of the estimates by replication.

Keywords:

Monthly Labor Force Transitions|Survey Weights| | | |

Sponsors:

Survey Research Methods Section

Tracks:

Data Analysis/Modeling

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