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Competing Risks Analysis of MLB Draft Data

Abstract Number:

2613 

Submission Type:

Contributed Abstract 

Contributed Abstract Type:

Paper 

Participants:

Eric Gerber (1)

Institutions:

(1) Northeastern University, Boston, MA

First Author:

Eric Gerber  
Northeastern University

Presenting Author:

Eric Gerber  
N/A

Abstract Text:

Baseball is unique in the major US sports in that nearly every player who is drafted will spend significant time in the minor leagues (MiLB) before reaching the major league (MLB). Beginning in 2021, the MLB draft was cut in half from 40 rounds to 20, yet still most will spend years in MiLB and retire before making it to the big leagues. This research applies competing risks analysis to investigate how different draft day factors influence the time it takes draftees to either reach MLB or retire before doing so. The results suggest position, pick number, type (high school vs. college), and bonus as a proportion of slot are all important features. The Fine-Gray model we apply can be used to quantify a draftee's likelihood of reaching MLB or retiring over time based on these features, which can be of immense use to the players, their agents, and even the teams drafting them.

Keywords:

competing risks|Fine-Gray model|MLB draft| survival analysis|baseball |

Sponsors:

Section on Statistics in Sports

Tracks:

Miscellaneous

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