Abstract Number:
3531
Submission Type:
Contributed Abstract
Contributed Abstract Type:
Paper
Participants:
Bokgyeong Kang (1), Erin Schliep (2), Alan Gelfand (1), Robert Schick (3)
Institutions:
(1) Duke University, Durham, NC, (2) North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, (3) Southall Environmental Associates, Aptos, CA
Co-Author(s):
First Author:
Presenting Author:
Abstract Text:
Sound is the primary mode of communication among many marine species. To better understand the communication process, we propose a new spatiotemporal mutually exciting process model consisting of background and countercall processes over an array of monitors. The background process describes the intensity of contact calls and provides inference for the diurnal patterns of and impact of noise on animals' acoustic behavior. The countercall process accounts for the potential self-excitement. We fit the model in a hierarchical Bayes framework. We consider model adequacy, extending the random time change theorem to a fully Bayesian modeling setting and model comparison through the posterior log-likelihood. We study calls made by North Atlantic right whales, an endangered large baleen whale, in Cape Cod Bay in MA in the US. We find strong evidence of mutual excitement. Further, we find evidence that whales are likely to remain quiet in the presence of loud noises, make calls during twilight hours, and respond to other whales nearby.
Keywords:
Gaussian process|Markov chain Monte Carlo|North Atlantic right whales|random time change theorem|spatial process|temporal point patterns
Sponsors:
Section on Statistics and the Environment
Tracks:
Ecology
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