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Adaptive Sampling Design for Estimating Spatiotemporal Pathogen Prevalence in Cities

Abstract Number:

3588

Submission Type:

Contributed Abstract

Contributed Abstract Type:

Paper

Participants:

Katherine McLaughlin (1), Jeffrey Bethel (1), Nicole Breuner (1), Benjamin Dalziel (1), Kathryn Higley (1), Allison Myers (1), Justin Preece (1), Tyler Radniecki (1), Robert Trangucci (1)

Institutions:

(1) Oregon State University, N/A

Co-Author(s):

Jeffrey Bethel
Oregon State University

Nicole Breuner
Oregon State University

Benjamin Dalziel
Oregon State University

Kathryn Higley
Oregon State University

Allison Myers
Oregon State University

Justin Preece
Oregon State University

Tyler Radniecki
Oregon State University

Robert Trangucci
Oregon State University

First Author:

Katherine McLaughlin
Oregon State University

Presenting Author:

Katherine McLaughlin
Oregon State University

Abstract Text:

Cities are fragile to pandemic threats but predictive awareness and emergent response can fundamentally change epidemic dynamics. We leverage passive data collection via wastewater-based epidemiology in disjoint microsewersheds that span a city to develop an ongoing and adaptive monitoring protocol for infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and influenza. Adaptively sampling in cities has the potential to efficiently detect hotspots and identify the emergence pathogens even when prevalence in the general population is very low. Each week, we utilize the past time series of wastewater pathogen concentration measurements, Census data at the block level, information provided by local public health officials, and publicly available data to select the next sampling locations to minimize the opportunity cost and efficiently reduce uncertainty in parameter values. In this talk, we describe the adaptive sampling design, derive appropriate estimators and standard errors, and discuss their statistical properties including robustness to small sample size, missing data, and measurement error. We present preliminary results from data collected from February-July, 2024 in two cities in Oregon.

Keywords:

Sponsors:

Survey Research Methods Section

Tracks:

Sample Design

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