Print  Close

Estimation of Optimal Treatment Regimes with Irregularly Observed Data via Bayesian Joint Modelling

Abstract Number:

3761 

Submission Type:

Contributed Abstract 

Contributed Abstract Type:

Speed 

Participants:

Larry Dong (1), Eleanor Pullenayegum (2), Olli Saarela (1)

Institutions:

(1) University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, (2) Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario

Co-Author(s):

Eleanor Pullenayegum  
Hospital for Sick Children
Olli Saarela  
University of Toronto

First Author:

Larry Dong  
University of Toronto

Presenting Author:

Larry Dong  
N/A

Abstract Text:

Optimal dynamic treatment regimes (DTR) are sequences of decision rules aimed at determining the sequence of treatments tailored to patients, maximizing a long-term outcome. While conventional DTR estimation uses longitudinal data, there is little work on devising methods that use irregularly observed data to infer optimal DTRs. In this work, we first extend the target trial framework -- a paradigm to estimate specified statistical estimands under hypothetical scenarios using observational data -- to the DTR context; this extension allows treatment regimes to be defined with intervenable visit times. We propose an adapted version of G-computation marginalizing over random effects for rewards that encapsulate a treatment strategy's value. To estimate components of the G-computation formula, we then articulate a Bayesian joint model to handle correlated random effects between the outcome, visit and treatment processes. We also extend this model to allow flexible specifications of the random effects' distribution. Lastly, we show via simulation studies that failure to account for the observational treatment and visit processes produces bias in the estimation of regime rewards.

Keywords:

Dynamic treatment regime|Bayesian joint modelling|Target Trial Framework|G-computation|Irregularly observed data|

Sponsors:

Section on Bayesian Statistical Science

Tracks:

Applications in Life Sciences and Medicine

Can this be considered for alternate subtype?

Yes

Are you interested in volunteering to serve as a session chair?

Yes

I have read and understand that JSM participants must abide by the Participant Guidelines.

Yes

I understand that JSM participants must register and pay the appropriate registration fee by June 1, 2024. The registration fee is non-refundable.

I understand