Assessment of Effectiveness of Weighting Adjustment using Short Time Series of Survey Estimates at Multiple Geographic Levels

Oregon Convention Center 

Motivated by Census Bureau research on re-weighting of American Community Survey 1-year estimates, this talk considers evaluation of effectiveness of weighting-adjustment based on short time series of successive weighted 1-year estimates of selected outcome variables made at national, state and county level. The variables to which this method is applied must be carefully selected to be stable and smoothly varying in the population, at each geographic level, from external subject-matter knowledge. The talk will show how to build an evaluation metric from this idea and to establish mathematical properties of the metric under ideal conditions of correct and misspecified weighting, and will illustrate the metric for several different proposed weighting schemes for ACS estimates for the years 2018 through 2021.