Sunshine or Rainbows? Deconstructing referendum results in Florida, 2012-2022

Oregon Convention Center 

Every other November, Americans vote on an array of candidates for federal, state, and local offices. Although many offices are on the ballot each election, voter behavior increasingly appears low-dimensional due to the dominant two-party system and rising partisan polarization. Nevertheless, voter policy preferences remain more heterogeneous than may be appreciated based solely on candidate performance in partisan elections. As in several states, constitutional amendments in Florida require direct approval by the electorate via statewide referendum. From 2012-2022, 40 such proposed amendments have been voted on, spanning policy areas such as taxation, healthcare, and civil liberties. The corresponding results provide a rich resource to interrogate voter preferences directly across a spectrum of issues. Combining official precinct-level results and available socioeconomic and demographic data, this study characterizes the support for ballot initiatives and candidates in Florida using techniques for regression, dimension reduction, and deconvolution. To conclude, the methodological challenges inherent to this data type and implications of the findings are discussed.

Election data

public opinion

decomposition

deconvolution

public policy

regression 

Survey Research Methods Section