Evaluation of a Modified Gross Flows Estimator for The Current Population Survey

Oregon Convention Center 

We present a gross flows estimation approach which builds off the paper of Stasny and Fienberg (1985). Our method uses population weighted estimates from two consecutive months of matched data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) using the sampling weights from each of the two matched months to produce two sets of partial gross flows tables. We then use a modeling approach from Stasny and Fienberg to reconcile the two partial tables to produce an estimate of the population gross flows table. Closed form solutions are presented which require an optimization solution to determine Lagrange parameters. We use the method to produce estimated gross flows tables for CPS from 2003-2023 and estimate the variance of the estimates by replication.

Monthly Labor Force Transitions

Survey Weights 

Survey Research Methods Section