Tuesday, Aug 6: 9:50 AM - 10:05 AM
2694
Contributed Papers
Oregon Convention Center
Having looked at the full match statistics for the England-France 2022 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinal, one could come away thinking "England lost despite having played better than France": 16 to 8 shot attempts, 8 to 5 shots on target, 5 corners to France's 2, resulting in a 1-2 loss. What's disregarded is the score situation: in the 40 minutes when the match was tied (0-0, 1-1), France led in all of the mentioned statistical categories, while consciously ceding initiative to England in the 66 minutes when up a goal - a tactic we'll refer to as "prevent defense" (term borrowed from American football). We use match event sequencing data across five European club leagues over the past 15 years to study impacts of prevent defense on the aforementioned statistical categories and goal-scoring tendencies for teams when trailing, leading or tied. For that we leverage categorical and count response modeling approaches with predictors that could reasonably affect the likelihood of a given team implementing prevent defense tactic, which would include, besides scoring differential, such aspects as prematch booking odds (to gauge the relative levels of opponents), red cards, time in the match.
Sports statistics
Categorical data
Multivariate regression
Main Sponsor
Section on Statistics in Sports