Longitudinal Population Estimates Using Person-Level Administrative Records

Oregon Convention Center 

We produce annual population estimates at low levels of geography in 2018-2021 using person-level administrative records (AR) from a large number of sources. Population change is decomposed into births, deaths, internal migration, and entry into and exit from the AR data of people not known to have been born or died during the period. The demographic distributions of each of these groups is shown. The results are compared to the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program estimates, the American Community Survey, and Internal Revenue Service estimates. We examine the extent to which the entry and exit could be a result of inconsistent person coverage in AR data over time and discuss methods for addressing this.

administrative records

population estimates 

Government Statistics Section