Race and Hispanic Origin Disagreement between the 2020 Census and Administrative Records

Oregon Convention Center 

The 2020 Census and other data sources such as administrative records often disagree on the race and Hispanic origin of a person. If we assume that the values reported in the 2020 Census are more accurate, then we find that administrative records have a high rate of misclassification. Moreover, we find different definitions for race and Hispanic origin between data sources, which complicate comparisons. In this paper, we analyze the race and Hispanic origin classifications of people on the 2020 Census, the 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), and administrative records. We discuss methods for correcting misclassification of the race and Hispanic origin values on administrative records, including corrections to these characteristics for people in administrative records that match or do not match to the 2020 Census. We also discuss a potentially problematic scenario where the definitions of race and Hispanic origin are not the same for different data sources. Finally, we discuss the impact misclassification has on PES estimates of population.

dual-system estimation

matching

misclassification

multiple-race identification

post-enumeration survey

small-area estimation 

Government Statistics Section