Building a Model to Predict Serious Mental Illness in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health

Oregon Convention Center 

The Mental Illness Calibration Study (MICS) is a clinical follow-up study designed to assess mental health disorders and produce estimates of mental illness for the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). From 2008-2012, a similar study (the Mental Health Surveillance Study) was fielded and used to produce a NSDUH model for predicting mental illness, calibrated to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) standards. In 2023-2024, 4,000 adult NSDUH respondents aged 18 or older will participate in a clinical interview within 28 days of completing their initial NSDUH interview. Data collected from these MICS clinical interviews will be used to update the current NSDUH statistical model for mental illness based on DSM-5 criteria.

This presentation covers: (1) differences between the prior mental illness model and MICS model for estimating mental illness, (2) the modeling procedures planned for 2023-2024 MICS data, and (3) preliminary results of the updated model parameters and estimated rates of mental illness using the 2023 MICS data.

Predictive Model

Survey Statistics 

Mental Health Statistics Section