Investigating Predictors of NFL Running Back Production Via Traditional and Regression Tree Models

Oregon Convention Center 

Highly drafted running backs are becoming increasingly rare in the NFL Running back contracts are also not typically as lucrative and lengthy as other positions due to injuries and lack of longevity in the league. As a potential instructional data set to compare traditional regression techniques and tree modeling, a data set was compiled that investigated NFL running back production in the period from 1999 to 2021. Responses such as years with original draft team and total career NFL rushing yards were investigated. Predictors included total college attempts, college conference and overall draft pick number. Results revealed some anticipated predictor significance as well as some less anticipated predictor importance. Furthermore, tree modeling revealed interesting ranges of predictor variables that might be useful in evaluating college players and predicting NFL performance.

regression

trees

modeling

prediction

teaching

sports 

Section on Statistics in Sports