Assessing the Robustness of AR Models in the Presence of Non-normality: A Simulation Study

Abstract Number:

2615 

Submission Type:

Contributed Abstract 

Contributed Abstract Type:

Poster 

Participants:

Mohamed Mohamed (1), Evrim Oral (2)

Institutions:

(1) Louisiana State University Health Science Center, N/A, (2) LSUHSC School of Public Health, N/A

Co-Author:

Evrim Oral  
LSUHSC School of Public Health

First Author:

Mohamed Mohamed  
Louisiana State University Health Science Center

Presenting Author:

Mohamed Mohamed  
Louisiana State University Health Science Center

Abstract Text:

In time series modeling, it is common to assume that innovations follow a normal distribution. However, this assumption does not always hold in real-world scenarios. Environmental datasets, in particular, often contain extreme values that violate normality. Through a comprehensive simulation study, we demonstrate that traditional AR(q) models can produce inaccurate results when innovations deviate from normality, especially when they exhibit skewness. Our findings highlight that outliers can distort estimates, introduce bias, and compromise the generalizability of results.

Keywords:

Autoregressive Models|Robustness|Outliers|Skew distributions| |

Sponsors:

Biometrics Section

Tracks:

Longitudinal/Correlated Data

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