Personalized feature threshold estimation in joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data

Music City Center 

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) cohort studies record longitudinal data on numerous CVD risk factors including body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), glucose, and total cholesterol. The commonly used threshold values for identifying subjects at high risk are 30 kg/m^2 for BMI, 120 mmHg for SBP, 80 mmHg for DBP, 126 mg/dL for glucose, and 230 mg/dL for total cholesterol. When studying the association between features of longitudinal risk factors and time to a CVD event, an important research question is whether these CVD risk factor thresholds should vary based on individual characteristics as well as the type of longitudinal feature being estimated. Using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we develop methods to estimate risk factor thresholds in joint models with multiple features for each longitudinal risk factor. These thresholds are allowed to vary by sex, race, and baseline smoking status. Our methods have the potential for personalized CVD prevention strategies as well as more precise estimates of CVD risk.

Joint modelling

Threshold estimation