Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Battle Royale Style Competitions

Music City Center 

In recent years there has been a large rise of battle royale tournaments. In this style tournament competitors are pitted against each and eliminated sequentially until a winner has been crowned. These competitions can be seen in video games, board games, endurance challenges, and reality competition series. We have developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to predict the results of a player-elimination tournament. In this talk we will use the reality competition series Project Runway as an illustrative example. We propose an adaptive model, which incorporates past results and player demographic information. We evaluate our model using various classification metrics.

Bayesian Analysis

Sports Analysis

Classification