Physically Assisted Data-Driven Approach to Rare Geophysical Extremes and Uncertainty Quantification

Music City Center 

This work aims to develop a rigorous and coherent statistical framework to enhance risk assessment methodologies for rare geophysical events. The primary objectives are: (1) to estimate the joint distribution of inputs characterizing rare events; (2) to develop efficient statistical emulators for generating large input-output datasets, enabling forward propagation to approximate output distributions; and (3) to comprehensively quantify uncertainties, addressing multiple sources and their implications for downstream extreme value analysis. The proposed framework will be applied to the study of storm surges and volcanic eruptions, demonstrating its practical utility in assessing the risks associated with geophysical extremes.