Bayesian Reliability Growth Planning for Complex DOD Systems

Music City Center 

The DOD regularly acquires new, large, complex systems that require reliability testing. Although traditional experimental designs methods can be used to test reliability, each trial of the system may cost millions of dollars. This expense has led to an increasing desire to use results from similar, previous experiments through carefully crafted Bayesian priors. We discuss our refinement of current discrete-time methods, derive a fast approximation for quick analysis, and demonstrate results with an example system.