Innovative Applications in Modeling Public Health, Election, Economic, Business, and Transportation Statistics

The U.S Army Materiel Command (AMC) develops and delivers materiel readiness solutions to ensure globally dominant land force capabilities. AMC manages the global supply chain, synchronizing logistics and sustainment activities across the Army, including using advanced analytics to ensure Army readiness. The AMC Analysis Group released the AMC Innovation Competition: Predicting and Influencing Readiness to crowdsource technical and creative approaches to identify key influential features and develop a robust modeling approach to predict unit-based readiness for the fleet of tactical vehicles. The proposed advanced analytic modeling flow presented in this work uses vetted statistical tools to identify influential markers for fleet readiness, they are then used to construct various time series and machine learning models under both Bayesian and Classical assumptions. The models are compared on model accuracy metrics, the best model is chosen and a global hyperparameter sensitivity analysis conducted for feature validation. Model drift detection methods are implemented to ensure model precision & accuracy remain at acceptable levels for model persistence under Army requirements. 

There is an interest in investigating the simultaneous administration of the HPV vaccine with other vaccines recommended for adolescents. This study investigates the trend in the prevalence of simultaneous administration of the HPV, Tdap (tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis) and MenACWY (quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine) vaccines in a single visit using data from the National Immunization Survey-Teen (2015-2023). Weighted regression models were used to estimate the trend. The findings reveal a significant increase in prevalence of simultaneous administration of the HPV, Tdap and MenACWY vaccines, from 22.6% (2015) to 45.8% (2023), with a linear regression slope of 3.1 (95% CI: 2.9-3.3). The trends were similar for both males and females, with slopes of 3.4 (95% CI: 3.2-3.7) and 2.8 (95% CI: 2.4-3.1), respectively. Further analyses will explore trends in prevalence of simultaneous administration by race and ethnicity and adjusted for metropolitan statistical area (MSA). In summary, we observed an increasing trend of about 3 percentage points per year in the prevalence of simultaneous administration of the HPV, Tdap, and MenACWY vaccines in a single visit. 

This study explores the integration of real-time analytics with traditional exit polling methods in the context of Ghana's 2024 presidential election, aiming to enhance electoral transparency and accuracy. Employing an innovative three-tier sampling approach, the research combined stratified sampling, cluster sampling, and simple random sampling to ensure representative data and reduce bias. Trained personnel at randomly selected polling stations collected data directly, feeding it into a Quick Count Database for real-time analysis, yielding consistent results with minimal variance. Unlike traditional exit polls, which suffer from delays in data processing, this methodology enabled immediate detection of anomalies, real-time adjustments for non-response bias, and continuous monitoring of voting patterns. This approach not only addressed issues of sampling bias but also provided an early warning system for electoral irregularities, contributing to improved electoral integrity in Ghana. The findings suggest that combining traditional exit polling with real-time analytics can significantly improve the timeliness and accuracy of election monitoring, potentially setting a new standard.