Pairwise-Elo (P-Elo) Rating System

Music City Center 

This paper proposes a statistical model for player chemistry by extending the de facto Elo rating system. While various rating systems have been proposed, almost all rating systems assume that players' ratings are totally ordered and transitivity holds. Such assumption precludes possibilities that a specific player plays very
well against another specific player regardless of their general ability. The proposed model consists of (i) a statistical test for the existence of pairwise player chemistry (intransitivity) for the entire group of players and (ii) estimation of winning probability for each of the pairs with the inclusion of player chemistry. We call our model P-Elo model. We will compare P-Elo model to the traditional Elo rating system on sports: Sumo Wresting (SW) and Mixed Martial Art (MMA); as well as the recently popular Large Language Model (LLM) evaluation in terms of match/comparison result prediction and probability estimation.

Elo Ratings

Bradley-Terry model

Ranking systems

Statistical modelling

Time series

Sports
forecasting 

Section on Statistics in Sports