Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Hurricane Genesis via Poisson Point Process Models

Music City Center 

We model hurricane genesis using Poisson processes with finite mixtures for the intensity surface. We use a Bayesian hierarchical framework for the estimation of the parameters of the model. The marked Poison point process allows for the inclusion of additional information such as hurricane strength. Based on our formulation we can answer two important questions: at which locations do we expect hurricane genesis of a certain strength to occur, and given a specific location, what hurricane strength do we expect to observe.

Bayesian hierarchical model

non-homogeneous Poisson process

spatial statistics

hurricane genesis

environmental science 

Section on Statistics and the Environment