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Reducing Future Extreme Climatology Surge-Rainfall Joint Hazards via Lowering Sea Level Rise

Raymond Shao First Author
 
Raymond Shao Presenting Author
 
Tuesday, Aug 5: 11:50 AM - 12:05 PM
0919 
Contributed Papers 
Music City Center 
Economic impact from extreme storm surges and rainfall under tropical cyclones (TCs) can be enormous, making these hazards of great interest. Sea level rise (SLR) under high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can greatly increase the surge-rainfall hazard. However, human intervention can reduce SLR and greatly reduce the future joint hazard. Focusing on Miami, Florida, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis historical joint return period (JRP) is 438 years, and the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI) projected JRP without SLR adjustment is 113 years, increasing the hazard by 4-fold. With SLR adjustment, however, by 2100 the MPI-projected JRP becomes 4.39 years, a shocking 100-fold increase. Optimistic JRP projections are examined with intervention to GHG emissions by scaling down SLR projections. Scaling values of 2/3, 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, and 1/8 increase projected JRPs to 10, 19, 43, 58, and 97 years, respectively. We examine locations along the Gulf and East coast, visualizing results with an interactive map of JRPs. Future research can focus on how human intervention can reduce future extreme climatology, sea level rise, and subsequent hazards.

Keywords

Sea-Level Rise

Joint Hazard

Storm Surge

Rainfall

Tropical Cyclone (TC)

Extreme Climatology 

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Section on Statistics and the Environment