Geology Guided Spatial Temporal Frailty Models for Volcanic Eruption Prediction

Music City Center 

Volcanic eruption prediction remains a major challenge due to sparse historical data and complex geological patterns. While most current approaches rely on real-time monitoring without fully using eruption history, survival analysis—a tool for time-to-event prediction—remains underexplored in this domain. To address this gap, we propose an extended Cox proportional hazard model that integrates volcano features, eruption history, and geological information. Key advances include bridging survival analysis with volcanology, dynamic short-term risk adjustment via a self-exciting mechanism, and integration of geological and spatial covariates via dimensionality reduction. We evaluate our model on a global eruption dataset, demonstrating its effectiveness and superiority over baseline methods.

Survival analysis

Cox Proportional Hazard Model with Frailty

spatial modeling

EM Algorithm

Numerical Optimization 

Section on Statistics and the Environment