Estimating the Risk of Cancer With and Without a Screening History

Music City Center 

A probability method to estimate cancer risk for asymptomatic individuals for the rest of life was developed based on one's current age and screening history
using the disease progressive model. The risk is a function of the transition probability density from the disease-free to the preclinical state, the sojourn time in the
preclinical state, and the screening sensitivity if one had a screening history with negative results. The method can be applied to any chronic disease.
As an example, the method was applied to estimate women's breast cancer risk using parameters estimated from the Health Insurance Plan of Greater New York (HIP) under two scenarios: with and without a screening history, and obtain some meaningful results.

incidence

risk

sensitivity

sojourn time

transition probability density 

Section on Risk Analysis