Impacts of extreme precipitation on outbreak of cryptosporidiosis risk in Tennessee, 2012- 2021

Music City Center 

The surge in extreme precipitation is forecast to lead to a rise in cryptosporidiosis, a waterborne acute gastrointestinal infection. This study examines the relationship between precipitation and cryptosporidiosis in Tennessee from 2012 to 2021 using time series analysis and Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM). The findings reveal significant seasonal trends in cryptosporidiosis cases, with periodic spikes right after rains. DLNM analyses highlight a delayed effect between precipitation and cryptosporidiosis cases, where moderate precipitation (1-2 inches) increases cryptosporidiosis risk over a 2-week period and extreme rainfall (>5 inches) reduces risk in 4-6 weeks. Furthermore, Contour and 3D surface plots illustrate high-risk zones at low-to-moderate precipitation levels with short lags and high precipitation levels correspond to a lower risk at intermediate lags, followed by a renewed increase after 6 weeks. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating temporal dynamics in assessing weather-related public health concerns and suggest that long-term public health interventions following rainfall events could help mitigate cryptosporidiosis outbreaks.

Distributed Lag Models

Time Series

Precipitation

Cryptosporidiosis

Predictive Analysis

R 

Section on Statistics in Epidemiology