Functional Data Analysis of US County-Level Post-COVID Economic Recovery

Zachary Davis Co-Author
Saint Vincent College
 
Justin Petrovich First Author
Saint Vincent College
 
Justin Petrovich Presenting Author
Saint Vincent College
 
Wednesday, Aug 6: 8:50 AM - 9:05 AM
2184 
Contributed Papers 
Music City Center 
The economic recovery after the response to the Covid-19 pandemic varied considerably across US counties. Using data from Opportunity Insights, we employ functional data techniques to model the recovery of employment among counties as a function of time. First, we regress the functional employment data on pre-2020 American Community Survey data to estimate how county demographics and industry distribution affected the course of the recovery. We compare this functional regression model with more standard panel regression techniques, like the random effects model, and demonstrate the benefits of a functional data approach. We also use cluster analysis on the functional employment data to find different recovery patterns across counties. The results from these analyses can be used to help municipalities plan and anticipate the economic impact of future similar disasters.

Keywords

Functional Data Analysis

COVID-19

County-Level Employment

Cluster Analysis 

Main Sponsor

Business and Economic Statistics Section