Forecasting Monthly Net International Migration for U.S. States Using Airline Flight Data

Music City Center 

Recent efforts across the federal statistical system aim to produce more accurate population estimates that incorporate international migration. Recent research by the U.S. Census Bureau relies on new administrative data to measure international migration into the U.S.; however, such data are often unavailable for subnational geographies, such as states. In the research, we leverage administrative data on inbound flights from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, travel visa issuance from the Bureau of Consular Affairs, and advanced airline passenger statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection to produce novel monthly, statewide estimates and forecasts of immigrant admissions to the U.S. Our methodology utilizes structural time series models that directly model the trend and seasonal patterns of migration. These new estimates permit more accurate and timely estimates of migration by state and can be easily incorporated into standard demographic models.

Immigration

Demographic estimates

Airline traffic

State space modeling

Forecasting 

Section on Statistical Computing