17: Investigating the Spatial Component of Serving Strategies in Tennis

Music City Center 

A crucial element of a tennis player's strategy is where to aim their serve. While prior research has examined the mix between serving "out wide" (Wide) and "up the T" (T), less attention has been given to the precise aiming location within these regions. We address this by modeling the serve as a two-period Markov decision process (MDP), incorporating execution error and expected rewards. Using data from the 2020-21 Australian Open, we estimate player-specific execution error distributions as bivariate Gaussians, accounting for net-induced censoring via a Bayesian model. We then integrate point win probabilities from Kovalchik et al. [2020] to determine optimal aiming locations. We present our model results for many players on the ATP and WTA circuits.