Evaluating the Effectiveness of Pretrial Risk Assessment Instruments: An Impact Data Analysis

Music City Center 

Pretrial risk assessment instruments are algorithmic tools widely used in the US Justice System. They predict the risk of future pretrial misconduct outcomes, such as failure to appear or new criminal activity. They inform decision-making by deriving risk scores to aid judges' decisions on conditions for pretrial release. This quantitative study examined the effectiveness of pretrial risk assessment instruments in mitigating risk by comparing misdemeanor bails assigned in two southeastern US counties, Mecklenburg and Wake in NC. The data included five years of misdemeanor arrests between 2018 and 2021. Wake County did not use any pretrial risk assessment instrument during this period. Mecklenburg County used the Public Safety Assessment. When comparing data for misdemeanor offenses from these two counties, there was a statistically significant difference in bail assignments. There was an increased use of money bail as a means for pretrial release in Mecklenburg County compared to Wake County. Race and gender were significant influences for bail greater than $5000. This finding implies that the use of PRAI might not lead to a reduction in the use of financial means of release.

Pretrial

Misdemeanor

Bail

Public Safety Assessment

Risk Instrument

Criminal Justice 

Justice Equity Diversity and Inclusion Outreach Group