44: Predicting Accrual and Underrepresented Biomedical Research Group Using Bayesian Methods

Music City Center 

There has been a recent push for biomedical research to incorporate more demographically, ethnically, and medically diverse cohorts – individuals who the NIH, designates as "underrepresented in biomedical research" (UBR). In clinical trials, researchers often set out to achieve target rates of UBR enrollment yet there are no methods used to help achieve these targets. Researchers must predict rates of UBR enrollment as the study is ongoing but to do so, prediction tools are needed. One well known method uses Bayesian accrual prediction to monitor participant accrual in a trial. Here we expand upon their method by simultaneously predicting a target accrual rate of UBR participants. Our prediction and monitoring tool can simultaneously predict accrual and UBR at any point during a study. We apply our method to two real-world completed clinical trial datasets: ADORE (An Assessment of DHA On Reducing Early preterm birth) and Quit2Live - a clinical trial to examine disparities in quitting between African American and White adult smokers. We show the usefulness of this method at various time points in these trials and demonstrate that it can be used to monitor future trials.

Clinical Trials

Sample Size

Participants

Prior 

Biopharmaceutical Section