17: Profiling Functional Effects of Long-Term Physical Activity on Risk of Diabetes Onset with All-of-US

Music City Center 

Diabetes is a leading chronic condition that affects the regulatory glucose mechanism. Preventive care, such as physical activity, is essential to reduce the risk of diabetes onset. The All-of-US Research Program, launched by the NIH, records the daily active zone minutes of over 15620 diverse participants across time. We conducted a retrospective study on All-of-US participants with data collected before the outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020 when physical activity patterns began to shift. This project assessed the functional association of long-term physical activity on the risk of diabetes onset, using the logistic regression with time-varying effects of daily activity durations. Individuals' long-term activity duration curves and effect curves are decomposed by shared orthonormal basis functions. We adopt fused lasso to cluster individuals based on their latent projection features. Participants in the same subgroup share characteristic activity duration curves and functional effects of long-term physical activity. The subgroup functional effects are estimated through the alternating direction methods of multiplier (ADMM). The details of the data analysis results are presented.

Functional effects

Subgroup analysis

Time-varying effects

All-of-US research program

Fitbit 

Section on Nonparametric Statistics