34: Prediction of frailty using gut microbiota by machine learning methods

Music City Center 

Epidemiological data have not been used much for forecasting, as most of them are used for confirmatory risk assessment, but there is a growing need to predict frailty in a hyper-aged society in Japan. Preventing frailty is crucial in aging societies because frailty is one of the main risk factors for loss of independence in older adults. We focused on gut microbiota, which previous studies have shown to be associated with frailty. We conducted a comprehensive exploration of the involvement of gut microbiota in the two factors of frailty for elderly Japanese subjects. Our study subjects were 798 Japanese country side residents aged 65 years or older. In this study, frailty wes explored using the L1-logistic regression and Backward/Forward method of logistic regression and Random Forest, which is a tree-based variable selection method.). As a result, two gut microbiota associated with psychological frailty were found. The results obtained in this study were found to be involved in frailty from previous studies. It was suggested that gut microbiota may play an important role in psychological frailty in the Japanese.

Frailty

Loss of independence

Gut microbiota

Psychological frailty 

Section on Statistics in Epidemiology