01: Association between Human Trafficking Arrests and Online Ad Volume: A Study of Five U.S. Cities

Music City Center 

Human trafficking remains a global issue, with traffickers using online platforms to advertise victims disguised as consensual services. Law enforcement struggles to distinguish between sex work and trafficking, especially on Adult Service Websites (ASWs), which traffickers exploit for anonymity and broad reach (Cotterill, 2023). This study examines whether trafficking-related arrests reduce online prostitution ads in Detroit, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, and Houston. Data from all five cities were filtered for relevant offenses and analyzed using linear regression scatterplots to assess relationships between arrests and ad volumes. The scatterplots and cross-correlation function plots revealed no strong correlation between these variables. Further analysis using autocorrelation functions and change point analysis showed significant shifts in data patterns, corresponding to events such as major police operations. This suggests traffickers quickly adapt to law enforcement actions, though certain events may temporarily disrupt their activity. This analysis aids law enforcement in understanding links between arrests and online ads, providing a basis for further research and strategy.

ASWs

cross correlation function

autocorrelation function

change point analysis

human trafficking

time series analysis 

Section on Statistical Consulting