68: An Analysis of Immigration and Crime at the Census Tract Level

Music City Center 

The long-studied relationship between immigration and crime generally suggests a negative or null association, though few studies account for authorization status. Prior works have been limited by poor estimates of the number of unauthorized immigrants, and inadequate geographic resolution and coverage in crime data. In this study, we use a novel method of estimating the number of unauthorized immigrants in each US census tract, and examine the relationship between unauthorized immigration and annual tract-level crime rates from 10 varied police jurisdictions across the United States. To assess this relationship, we apply a linear model across census tracts, controlling for known correlates of crime. We find the association between unauthorized immigration and crime rates to be statistically insignificant across all jurisdictions and crime types, including drug, property, and violent crimes. This study can be used to further research into the association between authorization status and crime and inform public policy discussions.

Crime Rates

Unauthorized Immigration

Synthetic Population Methods 

Social Statistics Section