64: Quantifying the Causal Effect of Pricing Interventions on Metro Ridership in the Post-Covid Period

Music City Center 

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought about shifts in activity patterns and travel behaviours, resulting in fluctuations in mass transit ridership. There were significant declines in ridership across all systems during lockdowns. However, after the lifting of travel restrictions, some metro systems have implemented fare reductions to stimulate demand in response to sluggish ridership growth. This study aims to conduct a causal analysis of the impact of pricing policies on ridership recovery in urban metro systems during the post-pandemic period. Regression discontinuity design and synthetic control methods are employed to estimate the average treatment effect of fare reductions, which serves as the basis for deriving price-demand elasticities. To ensure the robustness of our findings, Placebo tests are conducted to validate the results.

Causal inference

urban metro

fare policies

post-pandemic 

Transportation Statistics Interest Group