Building absolute breast cancer risk prediction models for female Hodgkin lymphoma survivors

Music City Center 

Chest radiotherapy strongly increases subsequent breast cancer (BC) risk among female Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors. We aimed to build absolute BC risk prediction models incorporating detailed treatment information and in the process addressed two important challenges in building risk prediction models. First, we proposed a novel weighting approach to estimate relative risks for risk factors that were used to match controls to cases in nested case-control studies to be able to incorporate them into a risk model. Second, we devised an approach to incorporate incidence rates from the general population, accommodating the much higher incidence among cancer survivors through a calibration factor. Both approaches were shown to work well in simulations (unbiased estimates of matching factor relative risks and <10% bias in the calibration factor estimate for many simulation settings) and when building absolute breast cancer risk prediction models.

absolute risk prediction

breast cancer

radiotherapy