How low can the women's marathon record go?

Thomas M. Menino Convention & Exhibition Center 

In October 2024, the Kenyan runner Ruth Chepngetich ran 2 hours, 9 minutes, 56 seconds in the Chicago Marathon, a new world record for the women's marathon by nearly two minutes and the first woman to go under 2:10, a time that would have been considered unbeatable a few years ago. The record was swiftly ratified by World Athletics, but there were also doubts about drug use, which have since been confirmed when she was banned for three years after admitting to anti-doping rule violations. But how improbable was the record, and what should be our projections for the women's marathon in the next few years? This paper uses methods from extreme value theory to analyze women's marathon performances in the Chicago Marathon and other leading marathons, showing that trends over the last several years made such a performance at least plausible. Possible reasons for the trends, including the advent of "super shoes", will be explored.

Extreme value theory

Chicago marathon

Super-shoes