Predicting Unoccupied Addresses for the 2030 Census

Thomas M. Menino Convention & Exhibition Center 

For the 2020 Census, the Census Bureau implemented models using administrative records (AR) to identify addresses with a high likelihood of an unoccupied status. These models were deployed during its nonresponse followup (NRFU) operation to limit contact attempts to unoccupied units. By doing so, field interviewers could allocate more time to occupied households that had not responded.

This research analyzes scenarios in which addresses with a high predicted probability of being unoccupied were determined to be occupied during the 2020 NRFU operation. In particular we examine address- and area-level conditions where these differences occurred. We then show improvements to the modeling methodology by incorporating new predictors. We provide general insight into survey methods with respect to how unoccupied addresses can be identified prior to fieldwork.

administrative data

2030 Census 

Survey Research Methods Section