Quantifying Changes in Extreme Snow Accumulations to Inform Infrastructure Design

Thomas M. Menino Convention & Exhibition Center 

Structures in snow-prone areas must be designed to withstand the weight of snow that accumulates on the roof. The design calculations require probabilistic estimates of annual extreme snow water equivalent (SWE), which are then used in a structural reliability analysis to determine the appropriate strength of the structural members (i.e., beams, columns, etc.) to prevent collapse during seasons of extreme snow accumulation. This paper outlines a data analysis workflow, starting from downscaled future projections of annual maximum SWE, progressing through a non-stationary extreme value analysis, and ending with design snow load (i.e., weight of accumulated snow as derived from SWE) recommendations suitable for inclusion in engineering codes and standards. The results show that design snow loads are expected to fall across most of the country as compared to historical estimates, with notable exceptions in the Upper Midwest. Most importantly, this talk highlights the opportunities and challenges associated with blending data and expertise between the statistics, climate science, and structural engineering communities to improve United States' infrastructure design standards.

Extreme Value Theory

Non-Stationarity

Climate Change

Structural Engineering

Applied Environmental Statistics

Generalized Extreme Value Distribution 

Section on Statistics and the Environment