36: Eruption of Somma-Vesuvius

Thomas M. Menino Convention & Exhibition Center 

The eruption time of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD has been debated for decades. The traditional view is August 24th, while recent archaeological evidence indicates that the eruption date was in autumn. Gaussian Matrix Mixture Model (GMMM) and bootstrap trajectory simulation were implemented to solve this problem. Based on the analysis of 50 years of ERA5 reanalysis wind data (1950-1999) in the Vesuvius volcanic area, we fitted the model with the AR(1) structure to characterize daily wind patterns. Using bootstrap to generate two-day wind trajectory, we estimated the probability of volcanic ash deposition in the target area, which matched the known 79 AD volcanic ash distribution. Our results show a clear seasonal pattern, with higher deposition probability in summer. Comparison of the two competing hypotheses shows that the August hypothesis (August 17-24) yields a relative probability of 65.78%, almost twice that of the October hypothesis (October 17-31) at 34.22%. These findings provide quantitative support for the traditional August eruption date documented in Pliny the Younger's letters.

Mount Vesuvius

Eruption timing

ERA5 reanalysis

Matrix-normal mixture model

EM algorithm

Bootstrap 

Section on Statistical Learning and Data Science