Competing Risks Analysis of MLB Draft Data

Oregon Convention Center 

Baseball is unique in the major US sports in that nearly every player who is drafted will spend significant time in the minor leagues (MiLB) before reaching the major league (MLB). Beginning in 2021, the MLB draft was cut in half from 40 rounds to 20, yet still most will spend years in MiLB and retire before making it to the big leagues. This research applies competing risks analysis to investigate how different draft day factors influence the time it takes draftees to either reach MLB or retire before doing so. The results suggest position, pick number, type (high school vs. college), and bonus as a proportion of slot are all important features. This approach can be used to quantify a draftee's likelihood of reaching MLB or retiring over time based on these features, which can be of immense use to the players, their agents, and even the teams drafting them.

competing risks

Fine-Gray model

MLB draft

survival analysis

baseball 

Section on Statistics in Sports